UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Barclays 28th Annual Global Healthcare Conference summary

Opening comments and outlook

• Forward-looking statements were made, with risks and uncertainties highlighted per SEC filings.

• Guidance for over 8.5% growth in 2024 was described as prudent and conservative, with early-year performance aligning with expectations.

• Encouragement was expressed regarding strategy, pricing, and product design across all business lines.

Medicare and regulatory environment

• Medicare cost trend is projected to rise from 7.5% in 2025 to about 10% in 2026, mainly due to known rate elements and risk accommodations.

• The risk model rebasing for 2027 was critiqued, with suggestions for deferral or phased implementation to address anomalies in calibration.

• Constructive dialogue with CMS is ongoing, focusing on data-driven feedback and advocating for accurate reflection of technology-driven productivity in forecasts.

Medicaid and ACA exchanges

• Medicaid margins are expected to decline by 100-170 basis points, with trends above rate increases and ongoing negotiations for 6%-7% rate hikes.

• Efforts are underway to address affordability and specialty pharmacy costs, though a disconnect remains between trend and rates.

• ACA exchange membership is tracking toward a 500,000 decline, with half expected by early Q2 and the remainder through SEP changes.