UPM-Kymmene (UPM) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q4 2025 saw improved performance and strong cash flow across most business areas, with a stable EBIT margin of 15.3% (€355 million) year-over-year, despite lower sales and EBIT compared to Q4 2024.

• Strategic actions included acquisitions, a share buy-back, portfolio streamlining, restructuring, and a planned joint venture for graphic paper with Sappi.

• The Leuna biorefinery began commercial deliveries, while the Rotterdam biorefinery project was discontinued.

• Focus remains on performance, cash generation, strengthening the balance sheet, and executing portfolio initiatives to drive growth and margin improvement.

• The Board proposes an unchanged dividend of €1.50 per share for 2025, representing 113% of comparable EPS.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2025 sales were €2,312 million, down 12% year-over-year; comparable EBIT was €355 million, down 15% from Q4 2024.

• Operating cash flow in Q4 was €720 million, with a significant working capital release of €416 million.

• Net debt at year-end was €3,004 million, with net debt/EBITDA at 2.29.

• Dividend proposal for 2025 is €1.50 per share, 113% of comparable EPS and a 6% yield.

• Capex (excluding acquisitions) was €409 million in 2025; estimated at €300 million for 2026.

Outlook and guidance

• H1 2026 comparable EBIT expected in the range of €325–525 million (vs. €413 million in H1 2025 and €508 million in H2 2025).

• H1 2026 performance to benefit from higher sales prices, delivery volumes, and lower fixed costs, but offset by weak communication paper markets and ramp-up costs at Leuna refinery.

• Sensitivities: €50/tonne change in pulp price impacts EBIT by €180–270 million; €10/MWh change in electricity price impacts EBIT by €40 million.