Vale (VALE3) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved or exceeded all 2025 guidance targets, with strong operational and cost performance across iron ore and base metals, and significant safety improvements including no dams at emergency Level 3.

• Advanced key growth projects such as Novo Carajás, Vargem Grande, Capanema, and Bacaba, supporting future output and cost competitiveness.

• Delivered robust shareholder returns, including $2.8 billion in dividends and interest on capital, and additional extraordinary remuneration.

• Achieved major progress in dam risk reduction, with a 77% reduction in high-risk dams since 2020 and 81% execution of Brumadinho reparation commitments.

• Launched initiatives to double copper output and drive iron ore growth, while maintaining disciplined capital allocation.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2025 pro forma EBITDA reached $4.83 billion, up 17% year-on-year, with annual EBITDA growth driven by higher volumes and prices.

• Iron ore production reached 336 million tons in 2025, up 3% year-on-year, the highest since 2018; copper output was 382,000 tons (+10%), and nickel output rose to 177,000 tons (+11%).

• Recurring free cash flow in Q4 was $1.7 billion, more than double year-on-year; annual free cash flow reached $4.8 billion (+26%).

• Annual CapEx totaled $5.5 billion, in line with guidance and reflecting disciplined spending.

• Net operating revenues for 2025 were $38.4 billion (+1% y/y); proforma net income was $7.8 billion (+28% y/y), though impacted by a $3.5 billion nickel impairment and $2.8 billion tax write-off.

Outlook and guidance

• Confident in delivering 2026 guidance, with iron ore and pellets all-in cost expected at $52–56/t and C1 cash cost at $20.0–21.5/t.

• Copper and nickel all-in cost guidance for 2026 at $1.0–1.5k/t and $12.0–13.5k/t, respectively.

• Annual CapEx guidance below $6 billion long-term, with 2026 expected at $5.4–$5.7 billion.

• Anticipate $1.5 billion reduction in cash outflows related to reparation and dam commitments in 2026.

• Focus on operational excellence, sustainable growth, and stakeholder value.