Veidekke (VEI) Market update autumn 2026 summary

Market outlook

• Scandinavian contractor output fell 6% in 2025, is forecast to rise 7% in 2026 and 3% in 2027, then remain flat in 2028 at current prices.

• Growth forecasts for 2026 were raised from 6% to 7%, and for 2027 from 1% to 3%, compared with the spring outlook.

• Production growth forecast for 2026: Norway 7%, Sweden 9% and Denmark 6%; for 2027: Norway 3%, Sweden 4% and Denmark 2%.

• The 2025 Scandinavian market is estimated at ~NOK 860bn, ~NOK 50bn below the previous estimate, mainly due to currency effects and a lower revised Swedish market level.

Macroeconomic conditions

• Brent oil again exceeded $100/bbl in the past month; low European gas inventories and LNG supply disruptions are adding pressure to energy and construction input costs.

• Economic outlooks diverge: Sweden is recovering, Denmark’s strong 2026 growth is largely pharmaceutical-led, Norway’s growth is moderate, and the euro area is weaker.

• Household purchasing power is improving in Norway and Sweden; gradual labour-market improvement may support housing demand and renovation activity.

Building markets

• H1 2026 residential orders: Norway fell 7% YoY to NOK 30.2bn; Sweden rose 39% to NOK 61.1bn, with Greater Stockholm the largest contributor.

• Norwegian apartment sales over the 12 months to Aug 2026 were ~10,000, slightly below the prior-year period; residential production is still forecast to decline, with recovery delayed by higher interest rates and unsold units.

• H1 2026 private commercial-building orders: Norway rose 23% to NOK 35.3bn; Sweden fell 11% to NOK 42.3bn. Commercial buildings are growing in Norway, while Sweden is weaker, particularly in industrial and logistics segments.

• H1 2026 public-building orders rose 127% in Norway to NOK 31.7bn, with hospitals driving about two-thirds of the increase; Sweden rose 26% to NOK 29.8bn. Growth is led by hospitals, cultural buildings and sports facilities.

• Denmark H1 2026 private-building orders rose 21% to NOK 50.8bn; public-building orders rose 4% to NOK 10.1bn.