VERBUND (VER) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q1 2025 was marked by geopolitical and regulatory uncertainties, including the extension and tightening of Austria's windfall profit tax until 2030, and volatile energy markets.

• Revenue increased 14.3% year-over-year to €2,295.0m, but EBITDA fell 18.1% to €723.9m and Group result declined 21.6% to €396.7m, mainly due to significantly lower hydropower and wind output.

• Hydropower and new renewables coefficients were well below both long-term averages and prior-year levels, impacting generation volumes.

• Despite challenging conditions, business development remained solid, supported by effective hedging, higher achieved contract prices, and improved sales and grid segment earnings.

• Major grid and battery storage projects advanced, including the initial operation of the 380 kV Salzburg line and new pumped storage capacity.

Financial highlights

• Revenue: €2,295.0m (+14.3% year-over-year); EBITDA: €723.9m (-18.1%); Group result: €396.7m (-21.6%).

• Hydro coefficient dropped to 0.83, 17 percentage points below the long-term average, leading to a 30.7% decrease in hydropower production.

• Net debt reduced to €1,691.5m, with gearing down to 14.6% from 17.9% at year-end 2024; equity ratio improved to 61.7%.

• Operating cash flow fell to €538.4m (-42.1%), and free cash flow after dividends dropped to €289.9m (-57.1%).

• Earnings per share fell to €1.14 from €1.46; EBIT margin at 25.1% (down from 37.1%).

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 EBITDA guidance set at €2,700m–€3,200m; Group result expected between €1,350m–€1,700m, assuming average hydro, wind, and PV generation for Q2–Q4 and stable regulation.

• Sensitivities: ±1% hydro generation impacts results by ±€11.4m; ±1% wind/PV by €1.3m; ±€1/MWh in wholesale price by €4.0m.

• Dividend payout planned at 45–55% of adjusted Group result.

• Earnings forecast is contingent on no further legal or regulatory changes.