Victoria (VCP) H2 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• FY 2026 revenue was £1,045.5 million, down 6.3% year-over-year, with volumes down nearly 9% due to macroeconomic and geopolitical disruptions, though improved average selling prices partly offset lower volumes.

• EBITDA reached £92.3 million, broadly in line with guidance, despite margin compression and lower volumes.

• Q1 FY 2027 showed a strong recovery: volumes up 3%, revenue up 7%, and profitability ahead of the prior year's best quarter.

• Major refinancing completed, reducing net debt, extending maturities to 2029 and 2031, and lowering finance costs.

• Operational improvements and cost-saving projects are progressing, with further upside expected as volumes recover.

Financial highlights

• FY 2026 EBITDA was £92.3 million (8.8% margin), down from £113.7 million (10.2% margin) in FY25, with margin compression from lower volumes and transition costs.

• Net debt at year-end was £1,063.2 million, with leverage at 11.5x, expected to reduce post-refinancing.

• Working capital initiatives delivered half of a targeted £40 million inflow by March; guidance is for working capital neutrality in FY 2027.

• CapEx for FY 2026 was £55 million, with similar guidance for FY 2027.

• Asset sales targeted at £70 million for FY 2027, with one major sale already completed.

Outlook and guidance

• FY 2027 EBITDA guidance is at least £115 million, driven by market share gains and operational improvements, with temporary margin dilution from higher input costs.

• Revenue growth expected in high single digits, mainly from market share gains in the UK, Australia, and the US.

• Margin recovery expected as cost savings and volume growth materialize; full benefit of some initiatives expected in FY 2028-2029.

• Guidance assumes gradual easing of energy prices and working capital neutrality.