W. P. Carey (WPC) Citi’s Miami Global Property CEO Conference 2026 summary

Key strategic themes

• Achieved record deal volume in 2025, with momentum carrying into 2026 and pre-funded investment capacity into 2027.

• Portfolio features strong rent growth, contributing about half of expected earnings growth and reducing reliance on acquisitions.

• Guidance for 2026 is conservative, with 4.2% AFFO growth midpoint and credit loss assumptions built in, but management expects potential upside.

• Trades at a discount to peers despite similar growth profiles, with management targeting multiple expansion as performance is demonstrated.

• Simplified business model after strategic changes, including exiting investment management and office portfolios, positioning for consistent growth.

Investment activity and market outlook

• Over $3 billion invested in the last five quarters, with deal activity especially strong in the U.S. industrial sector.

• U.S. retail is more competitive, leading to lower cap rates and less rent growth, but remains a target for opportunistic deals.

• Weighted average cap rate for 2025 was 7.6%, with average yields in the low to mid 9% range; spreads expected to widen as cost of capital improves.

• European market offers wider spreads and less competition, with recent increase in deal activity and pipeline now split roughly 50/50 between North America and Europe.

• Sale-leaseback market in Europe is less mature, providing pricing power and opportunity for growth.

Portfolio management and risk

• Credit loss guidance for 2026 assumes $10–$15 million (60–90 bps of rent), with potential to tighten as the year progresses.

• Ended 2025 with lower actual credit loss than forecast, and expects to refine guidance upward if tenant performance remains strong.

• Exposure to challenged tenant Hellweg has been reduced to about 1% of ABR, with plans to further decrease below top 25 tenants.

• Ongoing efforts to replace weaker tenants with stronger operators and sell assets as needed to mitigate risk.

• Operating asset exposure has been reduced to negligible levels, simplifying the revenue model and supporting valuation.