Waste Connections (WCN) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved industry-leading adjusted EBITDA margin of 33% for 2025, up 50–100 basis points year-over-year, driven by price-led organic growth and operational improvements.

• Returned over $830 million to shareholders via share repurchases and dividends, with a record $839.3 million in 2025, while maintaining flexibility for future growth.

• Closed 19 acquisitions in 2025, adding $330 million in annualized revenue, and expect $125 million rollover revenue in 2026 from deals already completed.

• Employee turnover and safety incident rates reached multiyear lows, with voluntary turnover at 10% and safety incidents down 20% year-over-year in January.

• Continued investment in sustainability, ESG, and AI-driven initiatives to enhance efficiency, customer service, and asset utilization.

Financial highlights

• Full year 2025 revenue was $9.467 billion, with Q4 revenue at $2.373 billion; adjusted EBITDA for the year was $3.125 billion (33.0% margin), up 50 basis points year-over-year.

• Adjusted free cash flow for 2025 was $1.26 billion, with a 50% conversion rate from adjusted EBITDA and 13.3% of revenue.

• Capital expenditures totaled $1.194 billion in 2025, including $100 million for RNG projects.

• Solid waste core pricing rose 6.5% in 2025, exceeding expectations, while reported volume declined 2.7% in Q4.

• 10-year total shareholder return of 405%, outperforming major indices.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 revenue expected between $9.9 billion and $9.95 billion, with organic growth of 3.5%-4% in solid waste and core pricing of 5%-5.5%.

• Adjusted EBITDA projected at $3.3-$3.325 billion, with margin of 33.3%-33.4%, up 30-40 basis points year-over-year.

• Adjusted free cash flow expected to increase double digits to $1.4-$1.45 billion; CapEx estimated at $1.25 billion, including $100 million for RNG and recycling.

• Guidance excludes impact from future acquisitions and assumes no material macroeconomic improvement.

• Preliminary 2026 framework targets mid-single digit revenue growth and further margin expansion.