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Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) investor relations material
Arafura Rare Earths Investor Presentation summary
Complete event summary combining all related documents: earnings call transcript, report, and slide presentation.
Project overview and strategic positioning
Nolans Project is a large, high-grade, construction-ready rare earths operation with a 38-year mine life and average annual production of 4,440 tpa NdPr oxide, positioned in the first quartile of the cost curve.
The project is fully permitted, close to infrastructure, and features a single-site, ore-to-oxide process, with over US$40m in site works completed to de-risk the schedule.
Demand for NdPr is forecast to double by 2035, driven by EVs, wind, and robotics, with a 7% CAGR; Nolans is one of the few advanced projects outside China.
Strategic offtake agreements secured with Hyundai & Kia, Siemens Gamesa, and Traxys, covering 66% of the binding offtake target.
The project is a key supply source for Europe, Korea, and the rest of the world, amid tightening Chinese export controls and global policy support for rare earth diversification.
Financials and funding
Project capex is US$1.2bn, with post-tax NPV of US$1.7bn (base) and US$2.5bn (incentive), and IRR of 17.2%–20.6%; average annual EBITDA is US$460m.
Over US$1bn in debt and completion support has conditional approval from multiple export credit agencies and commercial lenders.
Equity funding strategy targets 60% from cornerstone investors, with recent placements raising A$80m at A$0.19/share, and a share purchase plan for up to A$5m.
Proforma cash balance post-placement is A$107m, enhancing leverage in ongoing strategic equity negotiations.
Placement proceeds will be used for corporate, working capital, and project development costs.
Market and pricing dynamics
Nolans is forecast to be a low-cost producer, with net operating costs below US$30/kg NdPr after by-product credits.
The global NdPr market is experiencing supply constraints, with additional supply of over 60kt required by 2035.
Recent US Department of Defense and MP Materials transaction set a US$110/kg NdPr price floor, establishing a new ex-China market reference.
Offtake focus is on strategic value and alignment with non-China supply chains, targeting users qualifying for European and US policy support.
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