Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) investor relations material

Business performance and market trends

• Celebrating a 10-year anniversary, the company has evolved from regional to global operations, maintaining strong positions in North America, Brazil, and Europe.

• The sector is experiencing positive growth and resilience, with a strong start to the year and favorable Q1 results.

• Demand remains steady, with no significant channel filling or pre-stocking observed; inventory build and drawdown patterns are typical for the season.

• North America is in a transition year with softer volumes due to contract resets and footprint changes, but growth is expected to rebound next year.

• South America, particularly Brazil, shows increased volatility post-COVID, driven by consumer behavior, economic factors, and competitive dynamics.

Cost structure, supply chain, and inflation

• Input cost inflation is present, especially in coatings, but is less severe than post-COVID shocks; supply chains and energy markets are more resilient.

• Most commodity cost increases, including aluminum, energy, and freight, are now passed through or hedged, enhancing business resilience.

• The company has diversified supply chains and qualified more sources for metal and coatings, reducing vulnerability to shocks.

• No current concerns about aluminum supply disruptions for 2026, with new mills improving the outlook.

Regional insights and growth opportunities

• Europe remains under-penetrated in cans compared to the U.S. and U.K., with significant growth potential, especially as glass faces cost headwinds and sustainability pressures.

• European can growth is consistently outpacing plastic and glass, with 3-5% annual growth rates and double-digit gains in Germany.

• Structural factors such as marketing, shelf space, consumer habits, and filling capacity influence the pace of can adoption.

• In the U.S., the business is more focused on soft drinks and specialty categories, which has proven advantageous amid recent growth trends.