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Carrier Global (CARR) investor relations material
Carrier Global Baird 55th Annual Global Industrial Conference summary
Complete event summary combining all related documents: earnings call transcript, report, and slide presentation.Strategic vision and portfolio focus
Emphasized a focused, balanced portfolio with leadership in products, aftermarket, and systems, targeting sustained growth and margin expansion in key global markets.
Significant investments in commercial HVAC, expanded product offerings, and increased sales and technical capacity have driven market share gains, especially in the Americas and data centers.
Data center revenues are set to double to $1 billion this year, with a strong backlog extending into 2028, supporting continued growth.
Aftermarket and commercial HVAC segments, comprising 40% of the portfolio, have grown double digits over five years and are expected to continue this trend.
The company is leveraging technology, digital ecosystems, and brand strength to create differentiation and defend against commoditization.
Residential HVAC market outlook
U.S. residential HVAC market is currently below historical replacement rates, with 2025 volumes expected at 7.5 million units, down from a 9 million unit average.
Recovery to historical norms is anticipated over several years, not in a single year, with gradual volume growth expected.
Destocking efforts are on track, aiming for a 30% reduction in field inventory by year-end, positioning for a tailwind in the second half of next year.
Flat volume is assumed for next year, with a better outlook for 2026 to be provided in February.
High gross margins and ongoing cost reductions are expected to drive outsized growth when volumes recover.
Market dynamics and demand drivers
Replacement demand is influenced by factors such as interest rates, home sales, consumer strength, and weather.
Excess channel stocking and prebuy ahead of refrigerant changes contributed to recent volume weakness.
Financing is now used in 50% of U.S. HVAC replacements, and consumer reluctance to replace systems is linked to housing market conditions.
The replacement market is primarily break-fix, with pent-up demand expected due to refrigerant changes and labor shortages.
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