Carrier Global (CARR) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• 2024 sales reached $22.5 billion, up 19% year-over-year, with 3% organic growth and 16% from acquisitions/divestitures; adjusted operating profit was $3.54 billion, up 34% year-over-year.

• Completed major portfolio transformation, integrating Viessmann Climate Solutions and executing divestitures generating over $10 billion in gross proceeds.

• Returned over $2.6 billion to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases, and reduced net leverage to approximately 2x.

• Commercial HVAC and aftermarket sales grew double digits for the fourth consecutive year, offsetting residential/light commercial HVAC weakness in Europe and China.

• Entered 2025 with record commercial HVAC backlog and strong order momentum, positioning for accelerated growth with a focus on integrated systems and digital solutions.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2024 sales were $5.1 billion, up 19% year-over-year, with 6% organic growth (2% price, 4% volume).

• Adjusted operating profit up 65% year-over-year in Q4; full-year adjusted operating profit was $3.5 billion, up 34% year-over-year.

• Adjusted EPS from continuing operations was $2.56 for 2024, up 16% year-over-year; Q4 adjusted EPS was $0.54, up 50% year-over-year.

• Free cash flow for 2024 was $2.14 billion, $200 million better than guidance.

• HVAC segment FY 2024 sales grew 26% to $19.1 billion, with adjusted operating margin up 110 bps to 17.7%.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 organic growth expected at mid-single digits, with reported sales guidance of $22.5–$23.0 billion.

• Adjusted EPS guidance for 2025 is $2.95–$3.05, up 15–20% year-over-year.

• Free cash flow expected between $2.4–$2.6 billion, with ~100% conversion.

• Planned $3 billion in share repurchases and $1.2 billion debt paydown in 2025; total capital returns to shareholders projected at ~$3.8 billion.

• Commercial Refrigeration divestiture to create a ~$750 million sales headwind in 2025.