CF Industries (CF) investor relations material

Executive summary

• Adjusted EBITDA for H1 2025 reached $1.41B, up 16% year-over-year, driven by higher prices and volumes despite increased natural gas costs.

• Over $800M returned to shareholders in H1 2025 via share repurchases and dividends; $425M remains in current authorization, with a new $2B program through 2029.

• Donaldsonville CCS project began operating in July 2025, capturing CO2 at designed rates and generating 45Q tax credits.

• Blue Point joint venture for low-carbon ammonia is underway, consolidated into financials, with initial capital contributions made.

• Net sales for Q2 2025 rose 20% year-over-year to $1.89B, driven by higher prices and volumes.

Financial highlights

• H1 2025 net earnings attributable to common stockholders were $698M ($4.20/diluted share); Q2 2025 net earnings were $386M ($2.37/diluted share).

• H1 2025 net sales were $3.55B, up from $3.04B in H1 2024; Q2 2025 net sales were $1.89B, up from $1.57B in Q2 2024.

• H1 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $1.41B, up from $1.21B in H1 2024; Q2 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $761M, up from $752M in Q2 2024.

• Trailing twelve-month net cash from operations was $2.5B; free cash flow was $1.7B.

• Gross margin for Q2 2025 was 39.9% of net sales; H1 2025 gross margin was 37.3%.

Outlook and guidance

• Full-year 2025 capital expenditures projected at $800M–$900M, with $300M–$400M for Blue Point JV.

• Gross ammonia production in 2025 expected at ~10M tons; Q3 production to be lower due to planned maintenance.

• Donaldsonville CCS project expected to deliver incremental EBITDA and FCF north of $100M annually from tax incentives and product premiums.

• Long-term, global nitrogen supply-demand balance expected to remain tight, supporting EBITDA growth to ~$3B and FCF to ~$2B by 2030 mid-cycle.

• Global nitrogen inventories are low, and energy cost differentials are expected to support strong margins for North American producers.