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Federal Reserve System (FED) investor relations material
Federal Reserve System FOMC Meeting summary
Complete event summary combining all related documents: earnings call transcript, report, and slide presentation.
Economic outlook and labor market
Economic growth has moderated, with GDP rising 1.5% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% last year.
Consumer spending has slowed, business investment has picked up, and housing remains weak.
Unemployment edged up to 4.3% in August, with job gains slowing to 29,000 per month over the past three months.
Labor demand and supply have both softened, with job creation now below the break-even rate needed to keep unemployment steady.
Downside risks to employment have increased, with the median projection for unemployment at 4.5% by year-end.
Inflation and monetary policy
Inflation has risen recently, with total PCE prices up 2.7% and core PCE up 2.9% over the past year.
Near-term inflation expectations have increased due to tariffs, but long-term expectations remain anchored near 2%.
The FOMC lowered the federal funds rate by 0.25% to a range of 4–4.25% and will continue reducing securities holdings.
Interest rate paid on reserve balances reduced to 4.15 percent, and the primary credit rate decreased to 4.25 percent, both effective September 18, 2025.
The median projection for the federal funds rate is 3.6% at year-end, declining to 3.1% by 2027.
Risks, rationale, and policy direction
Risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, while risks to employment are to the downside.
The rate cut is seen as a move toward a more neutral policy stance, balancing both sides of the dual mandate.
The decision was driven by increased downside risks to employment and a cooling labor market.
The Committee remains prepared to adjust policy as needed based on incoming data and evolving risks.
There is a wide range of views among FOMC participants about the future path of rates, reflecting the unusual economic situation.
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