Smurfit Westrock (SW) investor relations material

Executive summary

• Q3 net sales rose $158M YoY to $8.161B; net income was $219M and Adjusted EBITDA was $1.205B, with a 14.8% margin.

• Freight and energy inflation weighed on earnings, while management cited progress in pricing, efficiency and operating actions to support a stronger 2027 foundation.

• FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance is ~$4.7B; management expects pricing recovery to build through 2027 and reaffirmed the 2030 plan.

Financial highlights

• Q3 net sales were $8.161B vs. $8.003B YoY; net income was $219M vs. $245M, and operating profit was $487M vs. $526M.

• Q3 Adjusted EBITDA was $1.205B vs. $1.302B YoY; margin was 14.8% vs. 16.3%.

• 9M net sales were $23.904B vs. $23.599B; net income was $370M vs. $601M, and Adjusted EBITDA was $3.421B vs. $3.767B.

• Q3 cost of goods sold increased $287M YoY, including $88M each from freight and energy; diluted EPS was $0.42 vs. $0.47.

• Q3 sales growth included $111M from selling price mix and $52M from volume, partly offset by $12M of negative FX.

Outlook and guidance

• FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance is ~$4.7B, including Q4 guidance of ~$1.3B; freight and energy costs are each expected to rise ~$350M vs. FY2025.

• Full recovery of the latest price increases is expected in Q1 2027, with further material benefits through Q1–Q2 as paper increases pass through to boxes and export markets.

• FY2026 capital expenditure guidance is ~$2.3B; cash interest is ~$0.7B and cash tax is ~$0.5B.

• Management expects 2027 to be a good year if conditions remain near current levels; the 2030 earnings target is unchanged, with 2026 cost pressure characterized as a timing delay.

• October North American volumes were level with the prior year; Europe was a couple of percent higher on a same-day basis, while Brazil demand had weakened in recent months.