TransUnion (TRU) investor relations material

Macro environment and market trends

• U.S. financial services volumes remain muted but stable, with mortgage activity at historic lows, though some growth has returned in 2024, reaching 8.5% in the first half.

• Personal loan volumes are growing, delinquencies are reasonable, and rate cuts are expected to positively impact lending and refinancing across sectors.

• Fintech lenders have rebounded after a volatile period, with capital returning and increased product penetration driving growth.

• Auto lending saw a temporary volume boost due to tariff fears, with sustained outperformance driven by price increases and expanded product offerings.

• Mortgage recovery is slow; rate cuts could trigger refinancing, especially for loans above 6%, but market changes and regulatory shifts are still evolving.

Industry innovation and regulatory developments

• The shift from hard to soft credit inquiries and the GSE early access program are changing mortgage inquiry dynamics, encouraging more consumer shopping.

• Tri-merge credit pulls remain standard, as more data improves outcomes; moving to trended credit data like VantageScore 4.0 is seen as overdue and more predictive.

• Both VantageScore and FICO 10T, which use trended and alternative data, are being adopted, broadening the mortgage market and improving risk assessment.

• The industry may move toward using multiple credit scores for mortgages, similar to bond ratings, enhancing risk diligence and market confidence.

International growth and strategy

• India is experiencing strong growth due to a large, increasingly lendable population, data transparency, and rapid digitization, with a market share above 70%.

• The RBI is leveraging alternative data to boost financial inclusion, and the Universal Payment Infrastructure supports innovative lending models.

• Recent trade tensions and tariffs with the U.S. create uncertainty for India's outlook, but long-term growth drivers remain robust.

• Expansion into Mexico leverages a newly acquired bureau, with plans to introduce advanced credit, marketing, and fraud solutions via the One True platform.