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Ventas (VTR) investor relations material
Ventas BofA Securities 2025 Global Real Estate Conference summary
Complete event summary combining all related documents: earnings call transcript, report, and slide presentation.
Market trends and demand drivers
Demographic tailwinds from the aging over-80 population, expected to grow 28% over five years, are accelerating demand for senior housing, with a significant inflection expected in 2026 as baby boomers age into this cohort.
Senior housing supply growth remains at record lows, with annual deliveries well below projected population growth, creating favorable conditions for occupancy and pricing power.
Net demand in some markets is expected to exceed net absorption, potentially leading to 100% occupancy in select communities.
The sector is experiencing multi-year double-digit NOI growth, with strong demand across both assisted and independent living.
U.S. portfolio performance is outpacing Canada, with U.S. occupancy growth driving overall results.
Financial performance and growth strategy
Guidance for 2024 and 2025 is for 8% FFO per share growth, with 2025 normalized FFO per share expected at $3.41–$3.46.
Dividend growth and multiple expansion are seen as future opportunities, supported by a strengthening balance sheet and leverage expected to decline below mid-5s.
$1.8B in senior housing acquisitions have closed year-to-date, with $2.0B expected to close in 2025 and an additional $0.5B in line-of-sight above the $2B 2025 guidance.
Acquisitions target high-occupancy, high-barrier markets with unlevered IRRs in the low to mid-teens and yields above 7%.
Liquidity of $4.7B as of June 30, 2025, supports continued growth and flexibility.
Operational highlights and portfolio management
SHOP (senior housing operating portfolio) is in its fourth year of double-digit NOI growth, with broad-based occupancy gains and same-store average occupancy reaching 88.1% in June, surpassing pre-COVID levels.
Recent acquisitions include class A senior housing in high-barrier markets, with a preference for large campuses offering a continuum of care.
Operating leverage is significant: incremental margins are around 50% from 80-90% occupancy and 70% from 90-100%.
The Brookdale portfolio is being partially converted to SHOP, with 45 assets targeted to double NOI from $50 million to over $100 million after $2 million per asset in CapEx; 11 NNN-to-SHOP conversions completed in September, with more expected through 4Q25.
Expanded SHOP operator pool from 10 in Dec 2020 to 36 in July 2025, enhancing local market expertise.
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