Academy Sports & Outdoors (ASO) Goldman Sachs Global Consumer and Retail Conference summary

Consumer trends and business performance

• Lower-income consumers (under $50K) are under significant pressure, with traffic down high single digits, while higher-income consumers (over $100K) are shopping more, now making up a larger share of the customer base.

• Promotional activity increased in Q2, especially around back-to-school, with longer and broader promotions expected to continue through the holiday season.

• Footwear, though only 20% of business, saw a slight decline but gained market share; diverse assortment and brand expansion help mitigate softness.

• New brands like Jordan and HOKA, along with expanded private label and niche brands, are attracting new customers and retaining existing ones.

• Events like the Women's World Cup drove traffic and boosted youth soccer participation, with expectations for sustained growth in related categories.

Store growth and operational strategy

• Plans to open 125 new stores over five years, focusing on outer suburbs and new markets, with new stores outperforming in legacy markets due to higher brand awareness.

• New stores are expected to generate $12M–$16M in first-year sales, with strong ROI and EBITDA positive in year one.

• Legacy stores are being refreshed, with 30–40 stores updated annually, aiming for 80% of the fleet refreshed over five years.

• E-commerce is growing, with 12.8% penetration and over half of online sales picked up in-store, supporting overall sales growth.

• Same-day delivery partnerships with DoorDash and Instacart are attracting younger, urban customers and expanding reach.

Financial outlook and capital allocation

• Gross margin for the back half of the year is expected to be flat, with tailwinds from reduced shrink, lower tariffs, and private brand sourcing, but headwinds from increased promotions and fuel costs.

• Long-term margin targets are 34.5%–35%, with EBITDA expansion to 9%–10% driven by sales leverage, supply chain improvements, and increased private brand penetration.

• Capital allocation remains split: 50% reinvested in growth pillars (new stores, omni-channel, store refreshes), 50% returned to shareholders via dividends and buybacks.

• Long-term plan targets 5% annual sales growth, low single-digit comps, and double-digit EPS growth.