AIB Group (A5G) Q1 2025 TU earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q1 2025 performance was ahead of plan, with strong business momentum and strategic delivery.

• New lending increased 14% year-over-year to €3.2bn, with 38% classified as green lending.

• Over 500 new customers were attracted daily, and significant progress was made on strategic initiatives.

• Market share in Irish mortgages at 34% YTD; robust funding and capital positions maintained.

Financial highlights

• Net interest income was €0.95bn, down 8% year-over-year due to lower rates; net fees and commissions rose 7% year-over-year.

• Operating costs increased 3% in line with guidance, resulting in a cost-to-income ratio of 43% for the quarter.

• CET1 ratio at end-March stood at 16.8%, up from 15.1% at Dec 2024.

• Customer deposits stable at €109.9bn, with growth about 5% in Q1.

• Small net credit impairment charge; cost of risk expected at 20-30bps for 2025.

Outlook and guidance

• Guidance for 2025 is reiterated: net interest income above €3.6bn, other income ~€750m, costs +3%, COR 20-30bps, assuming an ECB deposit rate of 1.75%.

• Consensus income for 2026 is just over €3.6bn, with sensitivity to ECB rates; a 25bps reduction impacts NII by €90m.

• RoTE targets for 2025 are expected to be meaningfully exceeded, with 2026 targets comfortably met.

• Cost target of less than €2bn for 2026 remains a focus, with headcount flatlining and efficiency initiatives underway.

• Customer loans expected to grow ~5% in 2025; CET1 >14%, CIR <50% for 2026.