Akzo Nobel (AKZA) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved full-year adjusted EBITDA of €1,444 million (14.2% margin), within 1% of initial guidance, with Q4 adjusted EBITDA at €309 million (13% margin); strong execution in soft market conditions and significant OPEX savings of €98 million, €28 million ahead of plan.

• Organic sales were flat for the year, with price/mix increases offset by lower volumes; revenue declined 5% year-over-year, mainly due to FX translation and the India divestment.

• Free cash flow reached €606 million, up €239 million year-over-year, with leverage reduced to 2x.

• Operating income rose to €1,164 million, driven by the India divestment gain, despite restructuring and litigation costs.

• Announced all-stock merger of equals with Axalta, expected to close late 2026 or early 2027, targeting $600 million cost synergies and a special cash dividend of up to €2.5 billion for shareholders.

Financial highlights

• Q4 organic sales declined 1% year-over-year; volumes down 2%, price/mix up 1%; FY 2025 organic sales flat, volumes -2%, price/mix +2%.

• Adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 70bps in Q4 and 40bps for the year; Q4 margin at 13%, FY 2025 at 14.2%.

• Free cash flow for the year was €606 million, driven by working capital improvements; trade working capital at 14.4% of revenue, down from 15.7%.

• Return on investment improved to 13.5% (2024: 13.3%).

• Adjusted earnings per share from continuing operations: €3.63 for 2025.

Outlook and guidance

• Adjusted EBITDA for 2026 expected at or above €1.47 billion, with at least €100 million improvement mainly from cost savings; volumes expected to be flat.

• Q1 2026 expected to mirror Q4 2025, with continued soft volumes and efficiency gains; CAPEX planned at €350 million.

• Leverage ratio expected to remain around 2x; stable dividend policy and mid-term ambitions for EBITDA margin above 16%.