Algoma Steel Group (ASTL) Q3 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3 shipments were 144,527 tons, down 65.5% YoY; steel revenue was C$218.2M and adjusted EBITDA loss was C$13.9M, with underlying EBITDA improving for a second consecutive quarter despite lower volume.

• Steelmaking fully transitioned from blast-furnace operations to EAFs; all Q3 liquid steel came from Unit One, and Unit Two produced its first liquid-steel heat October 9.

Financial highlights

• Consolidated revenue was C$249.4M versus C$523.9M in Q3 2025; steel revenue was C$218.2M versus C$473.3M.

• Net loss was C$129.6M versus C$485.1M YoY; operating loss was C$94.5M, while the prior-year quarter included a C$503.4M non-cash impairment.

• Q3 operating cash flow was C$78.6M versus C$117.3M used in Q3 2025; collections included C$163.9M in income tax refunds.

• 9M revenue was C$813.8M versus C$1,630.7M; adjusted EBITDA loss was C$28.9M versus C$166.2M, and net loss was C$385.0M versus C$620.2M.

Outlook and guidance

• Q4 shipments are expected to rise 25%-35% from Q3, weighted toward November and December; underlying EBITDA is expected to improve substantially, excluding capacity-utilization adjustment benefits.

• Unit Two is expected to contribute to Q4 production and shipments; 2027 production is expected to average ~1.2M tons, targeting 1.5-1.6M tons by year-end as both EAFs ramp.

• Available power and alternating EAF arcing could support a 1.8-1.9M-ton run rate; timing depends on ramp progress, with additional power expected in early 2028.

• Costs per ton are expected to remain directionally above $220-$225 during the 2027 ramp; higher volumes and additional power are expected to improve the cost structure.

• Following the EAF transition, annual raw-steel capacity is projected at ~3.7M tons and annual carbon emissions are expected to decline ~70% from pre-EAF levels.