Allegro (ALE) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Group GMV grew 9.9% year-on-year to PLN 15.5bn in Q3 2024, led by Polish operations up 10.8% and international GMV down 4.3%.

• Revenue rose 17.1% year-on-year in Poland and 7.8% at group level, while international revenue declined due to Mall Segment contraction and FX headwinds.

• Adjusted EBITDA increased 13.5% in Poland and 8.6% at group level, with margin stability at 6% of GMV in Poland.

• Net leverage improved to 0.95x adjusted EBITDA, providing greater investment flexibility.

• Active buyers reached 20.5 million, up 8.1% year-on-year, with strong growth in international markets from new marketplace launches.

Financial highlights

• Polish GMV reached PLN 14.7bn in Q3, up 10.8% year-on-year; group revenue was PLN 2,621m (+7.8% YoY).

• Adjusted EBITDA was PLN 734.8m (+8.6% YoY); Polish adjusted EBITDA/GMV margin held at 6%.

• Advertising revenue in Poland grew over 30% year-on-year, reaching 1.7% of GMV.

• CapEx increased 91% to PLN 182m, focused on logistics and IT.

• Net cash from operating activities in Q3 was PLN 516.7m, down 36.6% year-on-year due to working capital outflows.

Outlook and guidance

• Q4 2024 Polish GMV expected to grow 11-13% year-on-year; revenue to rise 13-16%; adjusted EBITDA growth forecast at 4-7% with margin between 5.3%-5.7%.

• International GMV expected to decline 25-28% year-on-year in Q4, with adjusted EBITDA loss of PLN 210-230m.

• Group consolidated GMV growth for Q4 forecast at 8-10% year-on-year, with adjusted EBITDA expected to decline 2-6%.

• Continued heavy investment in marketing and logistics, especially to boost international shopping frequency.