Alstom (ALO) H1 26/27 TU earnings summary

Executive summary

• H1 results were hit by Coradia Max industrialisation and homologation issues, plus margin pressure on projects executed for and from Germany.

• Operational recovery, project execution and balance-sheet repair are priorities; performance is expected to normalise from FY 2027/28.

• Operational and organisational reviews are underway; the medium-term trajectory is due at the Q2 2027 Capital Markets Day.

Financial highlights

• H1 orders were €11.0bn, up 5% reported; sales were €9.3bn, up 3% reported and 2% organically, with lower-than-planned car production constraining growth.

• H1 Free Cash Flow was €(1,248)m, versus €(740)m a year earlier, reflecting seasonality and milestone-payment timing.

• Net debt was €1.1bn at 30 September 2026, versus €0.4bn at 31 March 2026.

Outlook and guidance

• FY 2026/27 book-to-bill guidance remains above 1; organic sales growth is now low- to mid-single digits, versus ~5% previously.

• FY car production guidance fell to ~4,000 from 4,400–4,500; Coradia Max accounts for the vast majority of the revision.

• FY adjusted EBIT margin guidance is ~1%, with H2 expected at ~6.5%; FY Free Cash Flow is forecast at €(1.5)bn, versus “Positive” previously.

• Performance is expected to normalise from FY 2027/28 and trend toward 8–10% adjusted EBIT over the medium term.