Ambac Financial Group (OSG) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved 65% year-over-year revenue growth in insurance distribution, with 14.2% organic growth for the year and 8.1% for Q4 2025, driven by organic expansion and acquisitions.

• Completed a transformational year, exiting the legacy financial guarantee business and acquiring ArmadaCare, enhancing product diversification and recurring revenue.

• Launched 1889 Specialty MGA, expanding into SME financial institutions management liability and leveraging Lloyd's capacity.

• Share repurchases totaled $27 million in October, representing 6.7% of shares outstanding.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2025 net loss to shareholders was $30 million ($0.84/share), up from $22 million ($0.56/share) in Q4 2024, mainly due to acquisition, exit, and restructuring costs.

• Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations rose to $1.4 million from $0.5 million year-over-year.

• Total revenues increased 3% to $67 million for Q4 2025.

• Full year 2025 premium production up 50% to $1,312 million; Insurance Distribution premiums up 93% to $952 million.

• Insurance Distribution segment net loss improved to $1.4 million from $6 million, with adjusted EBITDA up 33% to just over $7 million.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 guidance: insurance distribution organic revenue growth of at least 20% and adjusted EBITDA of ~$40 million.

• Specialty insurance segment (Everspan) expected to reach $410 million gross written premiums and $7.5 million adjusted EBITDA.

• Consolidated adjusted net income guidance is ~$0.50 per share for 2026.

• Management expects strong organic growth in 2026, supported by recent acquisitions, new MGA launches, and cost reduction initiatives.

• Expecting 2–4 new MGA launches per year, focusing on scaling recent startups.