American Express Company (AXP) UBS Financial Services Conference summary

Revenue and growth outlook

• Guidance for 2025 is 8%-10% revenue growth, with Q4 spend re-accelerating and January spend tracking at the top end of the range.

• Billings were up 8% in Q4 across consumer, small business, and large corporations, with optimism noted but future trends still uncertain.

• Travel and entertainment spend, especially airline spend, saw a significant uptick, indicating customer confidence.

• Q1 is expected to be sequentially down from Q4 due to fewer days and FX headwinds, but full-year guidance remains strong.

• Investor expectations for Q1 are considered too high, but alignment exists on full-year targets.

Lending and deposit strategy

• Lending growth is driven by Pay Over Time, a revolving feature for premium card members, offering attractive economics and low credit risk.

• The company underpenetrates the lend wallet compared to the spend wallet, presenting significant growth opportunity.

• High Yield Savings Account balances grew 17% in 2024, with deposits now 60% of the funding mix, supporting NII and ROE.

• Expansion into consumer and small business checking accounts is underway, aiming to deepen customer relationships.

Customer acquisition and engagement

• Millennials and Gen Z represent 70% of new Gold and Platinum acquisitions, with high engagement, strong credit profiles, and higher retention rates than older cohorts.

• Younger cohorts give a larger share of wallet and are expected to drive embedded revenue growth over time.

• Premium consumers value experiential and emotional engagement, such as lounge access and high-touch service, more than basic rewards.

• Emotional connection and reliability are key differentiators in the premium segment.