APi Group (APG) Barclays 43rd Annual Industrial Select Conference summary

Business performance and outlook

• Exited 2025 with strong results, surpassing a 13% Adjusted EBITDA margin and maintaining momentum into 2026.

• Fourth quarter of 2025 delivered above the midpoint of guidance for both revenue and Adjusted EBITDA.

• 2026 guidance includes $8.4–$8.6 billion in revenue and $1.14–$1.2 billion in Adjusted EBITDA, with a 13.8% margin at the midpoint.

• Backlog remains at all-time highs, with improved margins and sequential growth entering the new year.

• Margin expansion is expected to be steady and supported by the inspection-first model and disciplined project selection.

Market trends and segment performance

• Inspection, service, and monitoring business is expected to grow at high single digits, while projects are forecasted for low single-digit growth, with some tailwinds from data centers and advanced manufacturing.

• Data center revenue exposure is expected to rise from 8% to about 10% in 2025, with combined data center and power markets reaching low to mid-teens percentage of total revenue.

• Project sizes in the data center space have increased, offering better economics and opportunities due to the company's branch network and ability to handle complex, remote projects.

• Commercial office project work remains limited, with most activity in inspection and service; higher education is strong, while K-12 is challenging.

• HVAC business is performing well after resegmentation, with growth in service and a selective approach to projects.

Labor, cost management, and operational strategy

• Tight labor markets are addressed through retention, leadership development, and innovative recruiting, including apprenticeship programs and partnerships with the military.

• Flexibility in moving staff between branches and businesses helps mitigate labor shortages.

• Good visibility into labor costs due to union agreements; proactive management of material costs and contract escalation clauses support operating leverage.