Aptiv (APTV) ADAS Roundtable Discussion summary

Market Overview and Growth Outlook

• The global ADAS market is projected to grow from $15B in 2020 to $27B in 2025 and $45B by 2030, with L2 and above systems driving about 50% of this growth.

• Over 55 million vehicles are equipped with the company's ADAS technology, generating $3B in 2024E active safety revenue and expecting 20% year-over-year growth.

• The ADAS software market is estimated to reach $9B by 2030, growing at a 15% CAGR as OEMs seek advanced, updatable, and modular solutions.

• Revenue mix is currently weighted toward North America and Europe, but China is rapidly growing, with two-thirds of China ADAS bookings from local OEMs and 60% of the Chinese market expected to have L2/L2+ and above systems by 2030.

• Win rates for new business are high, exceeding 70% globally and in China, with cumulative ADAS bookings of $11B from 2022 to 2024 YTD.

Technology and Product Strategy

• The Gen 6 ADAS platform uses a modular, cloud-native, container-based software architecture, enabling rapid updates, efficient lifecycle management, and frequent feature updates.

• The open, hardware-agnostic platform supports multiple SoCs and sensor types, allowing flexibility for OEMs and regional adaptation, especially in China.

• AI/ML is deeply integrated for perception, behavior, and path planning, improving performance, reducing compute costs, and enabling human-like driving behavior.

• Architecture enables reusability and scalability from entry-level compliance systems to advanced L2++ and L3, reducing costs and speeding deployment.

• ML-driven radar and sensor fusion reduce reliance on expensive LiDAR, with imaging radar entering production and performance achieved with lower channel counts.

Regional and Competitive Positioning

• China is a major growth driver, with local OEMs rapidly adopting ADAS and favoring flexible, hardware-agnostic solutions, supported by government and tech-savvy consumers.

• Local partnerships (e.g., Horizon Robotics, Axera, MaxEye) and in-region teams enable tailored solutions, rapid market launches, and key award wins.

• Only Huawei matches the company’s full-system ADAS capabilities in China; other competitors are limited to segments or entry-level solutions.

• Vertically integrated OEMs (e.g., BYD, Tesla) are few; most Chinese OEMs still rely on external suppliers for turnkey ADAS solutions.

• The company’s global supply chain and regulatory expertise provide an edge as Chinese OEMs expand internationally.