Aptiv (APTV) ADAS Roundtable Discussion summary

Market overview and growth outlook

• The global ADAS market is projected to grow from $15B in 2020 to $27B in 2025 and $45B in 2030, with nearly 50% of vehicles equipped with Level 2 and above systems by 2030, driven by consumer demand, regulatory support, and increasing software requirements.

• Over $3B in ADAS revenues are expected for 2024, with a 20% year-over-year growth rate and strong customer bookings; cumulative ADAS bookings are projected at $11B from 2022 to 2024 YTD.

• Revenue mix currently favors North America and Europe, but China is rapidly increasing, with two-thirds of China ADAS bookings from local OEMs and a strong presence through localized engineering, manufacturing, and partnerships.

• Above-market revenue growth is expected to continue, supported by scalable solutions, global flexibility, and a modular, service-based software architecture.

• Margins are improving, with expectations for high teens by 2030, driven by software and platform reuse.

Technology and product strategy

• Gen 6 ADAS platform features a modular, cloud-native, container-driven software architecture, enabling rapid updates, lifecycle management, and frequent feature enhancements.

• The platform is open, SoC-agnostic, and perception-agnostic, allowing flexibility for OEMs and supporting localized solutions, especially in China.

• AI/ML is leveraged throughout the stack for perception, behavior, and path planning, improving performance, reducing compute costs, and enabling human-like driving behavior.

• Platform supports scalable deployment from compliance vehicles to L2++ and L3, with significant hardware and software reuse.

• ML-driven radar and sensor fusion reduce reliance on LiDAR, with multimodal support for future needs.

Regional strategy and competitive positioning

• China is a key growth market, with ADAS adoption expected to reach 60% L2 and above by 2030, supported by government policy, tech-savvy consumers, and OEM differentiation.

• Localized solutions use regional SoCs and vision providers, with recent equity investment in MaxEye to accelerate deployment and strengthen the local vendor ecosystem.

• Main local competitor for full-scale systems is Huawei; other local players compete in entry-level segments.

• Win rates in China are similar to global levels, exceeding 70% once established with an OEM.

• Modular approach and supplier resilience position the company well even as some OEMs pursue vertical integration.