ARYZTA (ARYN) H2 2023 earnings summary

Executive summary

• CY2023 revenue rose 14.4% to €2,192.7m; EBITDA increased 32.3% to €304.5m, lifting margin 190 bps to 13.9%.

• Organic growth was 14.7%; profit for the period reached €125.7m and free cash flow €132.4m.

• For the 17-month period ended December 2023, revenue was €3,046.0m, EBITDA €400.8m and free cash flow €139.6m.

Financial highlights

• CY2023 revenue was €2,192.7m versus €1,915.9m in CY2022; organic growth comprised 12.2% pricing, 3.1% volume and -0.6% mix.

• EBITDA was €304.5m versus €230.1m; profit for the period rose 55.4% to €125.7m.

• Diluted EPS increased 141.0% to 8.2 euro cents from 3.4 cents; profit used for EPS was €81.6m versus €33.8m.

• For the 17-month period ended December 2023, organic growth was 17.3%, EBITDA margin 13.2% and profit for the period €160.5m.

Outlook and guidance

• FY2024 organic growth expected to normalize to low-to-mid single digits, driven largely by volume and mix; Q1 run-rate was lower amid temporary softness, especially in QSR.

• EBITDA margin expansion is expected to normalize in 2024, supported by growth, efficiencies and cost discipline; quarterly trends may vary.

• Further free cash flow improvement and lower total net debt leverage expected in 2024, with sequential ROIC improvement.

• FY2025 targets: organic growth CAGR 4.5%-5.5%, EBITDA margin ≥14.5%, ROIC ≥11%, capex 3.5%-4.0% of revenue and leverage <3x.