ARYZTA (ARYN) Q3 2025 TU earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3 organic growth reached 0.8%, driven by 1.0% pricing and flat volume, with year-to-date organic growth at 2.1% supported by both volume/mix and pricing.

• Innovation contributed approximately 18% of year-to-date revenue, with new capacity investments in Malaysia, Switzerland, Germany, and Australia.

• All channels contributed to growth, with bake-off gaining market share from fresh bakery.

• Cost optimisation programmes are being accelerated to address higher-than-expected labour and input cost inflation.

• Leadership reiterates confidence in achieving mid-term targets for 2028, emphasizing a strong track record and ongoing innovation.

Financial highlights

• Q3 group revenue was €554.3m, with Europe contributing €492.8m and Rest of World €61.5m.

• Nine-month group revenue reached €1,640.7m, up 2.1% year-over-year, with Europe at €1,461.4m and Rest of World at €179.3m.

• Q3 organic growth: Europe 0.7%, Rest of World 1.4%, Group 0.8%; nine-month: Europe 2.2%, Rest of World 1.8%, Group 2.1%.

• EBITDA for 2025 is confirmed at a minimum of €300 million, with free cash flow around €100 million.

Outlook and guidance

• Full-year 2025 guidance: organic growth in the low to mid-single-digit range, EBITDA at least €300 million, and free cash flow about €100 million.

• Mid-term targets (2025-2028): revenue growth above market, EBITDA margin >15%, EBIT margin >9%, CAPEX at 3.5-4.5% of revenue, and net debt leverage at 1.5-2x.

• Acceleration of cost optimisation measures is expected to drive a swift rebound in performance and profitability.

• Further details on capital return to shareholders will be provided in 2026.