Asahi Group (2502) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• 2025 revenue declined 1.4% year-over-year to JPY 2,894.7 billion, mainly due to system disruption in Japan & East Asia and lower sales in Europe, partially offset by growth in Asia Pacific.

• Core Operating Profit fell 7.8% year-over-year, with sharp contraction in Japan & East Asia, despite gains in Europe and Asia Pacific.

• Operating profit dropped 30.9% year-over-year to JPY 185.9 billion, impacted by one-off costs from system disruption, impairment losses, and lower gains on asset sales.

• Profit attributable to owners of parent decreased 36.7% year-over-year to JPY 121.6 billion; adjusted profit (excluding one-offs) declined 19.6%.

• 2026 forecasts anticipate a 5.4% revenue increase to JPY 3,220.0 billion and a 3.2% rise in Core Operating Profit, driven by recovery in Japan & East Asia and improved pricing.

Financial highlights

• 2025 revenue: JPY 2,894.7 billion (-1.4% YoY); 2026 forecast: JPY 3,220.0 billion (+5.4% YoY).

• 2025 Core Operating Profit: JPY 263.0 billion (-7.8% YoY); 2026 forecast: JPY 291.0 billion (+3.2% YoY).

• 2025 Operating Profit: JPY 185.9 billion (-30.9% YoY); 2026 forecast: JPY 297.0 billion (+59.8% YoY).

• 2025 Profit attributable to owners: JPY 121.6 billion (-36.7% YoY); 2026 forecast: JPY 194.0 billion (+59.6% YoY).

• Free cash flow in 2025 was negative JPY 43.4 billion; 2026 forecast is positive JPY 279.0 billion.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 revenue expected to grow 5.4% year-over-year, with recovery in Japan & East Asia and improved unit sales prices across all regions.

• Core Operating Profit projected to rise 3.2% year-over-year, despite higher temporary and variable costs.

• Operating profit and net profit forecast to rebound strongly due to absence of 2025's one-off costs.

• Annual dividend per share to increase by JPY 5 in 2026.

• Adjusted profit attributable to owners of parent forecast at JPY 168.0 billion, up 14.3%.