AtriCure (ATRC) Stifel 2026 Healthcare Conference 2026 summary

2026 outlook and investment

• Updated FY 2026 revenue guidance of $606M-$610M reflects prudent conservatism; confidence in U.S. momentum remains, with international and U.S. hybrid business identified as potential headwinds.

• The 2028 LRP targets $750M revenue and 14% adjusted EBITDA margin; management expects continued double-digit growth and sees potential to outperform the LRP, citing quality metrics and BoxX-NoAF catalysts.

• Manufacturing expansion will double production capacity and weigh on gross margin before utilization ramps; newer products are contributing high-margin revenue.

• Increased profitability is enabling faster R&D and new-product investment while continuing progress on the bottom line.

STS quality metric and BoxX

• The STS metric starts with a 70% threshold, with LAA management or ablation qualifying; longer term, the threshold may rise toward 90%+ and the focus is expected to be on both treatments.

• In 2027, STS reporting is expected to build awareness, with twice-yearly results available at site and individual-surgeon levels; early uptake may be greater for under-penetrated ablation, with more impact in 2028-2029.

• BoxX targets postoperative AFib, which management said affects ~40% of patients in typical trial controls; the trial also tracks AFib burden over three years.

• BoxX is expected to complete enrollment by end-2026, with the 30-day endpoint planned for May 2027 and the three-year endpoint later; a 10-point absolute reduction is viewed as clinically relevant.

• BoxX is seen as the larger 2027 opportunity; aggressive promotion will wait for an FDA label, and targeted territory splits—not a doubling of the sales team—are being considered.

LAA products and clinical evidence

• The 30 mm FLEX-Mini received FDA clearance and is expected to launch in late 2026; FLEX-Mini V combines FLEX-V’s approach with a smaller profile, with clearance and launch expected in late 2027.

• Edwards’ Ecliptis is being introduced in the field, but has not been a material headwind so far; management cited product, evidence and commercial-team strengths.

• LEAPS enrolled in July 2025 and has reached 50% of its events; the 75% event milestone is anticipated in 2028, followed by the final analysis at 469 events.