Aurora Innovation (AUR) Evercore ISI's Autonomous, ADAS & AI Forum summary

Strategic vision and business model evolution

• Aims to deliver self-driving technology safely, quickly, and broadly, focusing first on autonomous trucking across the Sun Belt, expanding to most of the U.S. by 2030.

• Transitioning from terminal-to-terminal to customer endpoints starting in 2026 to drive adoption and confidence.

• Long-term business model is driver-as-a-service, enabling customers to buy and deploy trucks flexibly.

• Partnerships with OEMs (PACCAR, Volvo) and hardware providers (Aumovio/Continental) are key to scaling hardware and business.

• Hardware-as-a-service model aligns incentives, with third-generation hardware financed and serviced by Continental, paid per mile.

Operational milestones and technology roadmap

• Currently operates driverless trucks on public roads, with over 50,000 miles completed on the Dallas-Houston lane.

• 2025 focuses on increasing driverless miles, improving product capabilities (night, rain, wind), and expanding to new lanes.

• 2026 targets scaling to hundreds of trucks, launching second-generation hardware, and expanding across the Sun Belt.

• 2027 marks the transition to driver-as-a-service and introduction of third-generation hardware.

• By 2028, aims to supplement the human-driven fleet, targeting a $50 billion serviceable addressable market (SAM).

Customer value and market opportunity

• Autonomous trucking offers higher safety, increased asset utilization, and lower total cost of ownership, improving carrier margins.

• Main value is in over-the-road routes between distribution centers, warehouses, and customer endpoints, not urban last-mile delivery.

• Customers prefer flexibility to deploy trucks on desired routes and endpoints, with most endpoints within five miles of highways.

• Initial target is $2–3 billion of the $50 billion SAM, with 10,000 trucks operating 200,000+ miles per year.

• Customers want reliable, all-conditions operation; unlocking endpoints and new capabilities is a key driver of adoption.