Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) BBVA Strategic Talks: BBVA Mexico summary

Macroeconomic outlook and growth opportunities

• GDP growth is expected to accelerate from 1.2% in 2025 to 2.0% in 2026, with an upward revision likely due to strong foreign direct investment, exports, and improved consumption levels.

• Fiscal consolidation has led to a sustainable public deficit, supporting a positive macroeconomic outlook.

• Inflation is projected to moderate to 3.6% by 2027, with reference rates stabilizing at 6.5%.

• Lending penetration remains low at 35%, with significant room for growth, especially for MSMEs, as only 31% are banked and 21% have credit access.

• President Sheinbaum's Plan México targets infrastructure, MSME development, and digitalization to boost productivity, with over 1,000 projects planned, mainly in energy and logistics.

Investment and trade momentum

• Foreign direct investment grew 10% in 2025 and is at record highs, with a 5% CAGR from 2021 to 2025; Mexico is expected to attract twice the investment of other Latin American countries.

• Industrial real estate occupancy rates are above 95%, with 5 million m² to be added by 2026.

• Mexico remains the top trading partner to the US, with 81% of imports entering tariff-free.

• Major US corporations have announced significant investments in Mexico.

Competitive position and market share

• Market share has increased by 300 basis points since 2018, with leadership in most product segments except personal loans and auto loans.

• Holds 32.7% market share in SMEs, 31.4% in credit cards, and 40.6% in payroll loans, with significant growth in each segment.

• Market leadership in both lending and deposits, with 25.6% and 24.2% market share respectively.

• Maintains the lowest NPL portfolio in the market and a cost-to-income ratio around 32.7%.

• MSMEs customer base and loans have grown at 11% and 12% CAGR since 2019.