Banco BPM (BAMI) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Net income for 9M 2025 reached €1.66 billion, up 17% year-over-year excluding one-offs, achieving 85% of full-year guidance of ~€1.95 billion, with strong capital (CET1 ratio at 13.52%) and robust commercial performance, including new lending up 39% year-over-year and AUM net inflows of €1.7 billion.

• Non-interest income now accounts for 49% of total revenues (proforma), up from 39% in 2024, reflecting a more diversified and resilient business model.

• Cost/income ratio improved to 45% from 47% in 2024, and cost of risk declined to 34bps from 40bps, driven by effective credit management and operational discipline.

• Interim dividend of €0.46 per share approved, up 15% from 2024, with €1.17 billion dividends accrued in 9M 2025 and a payout ratio of 80%.

• Strategic integration of Anima Holding completed, enhancing the group’s fee-based and product factory-driven business model.

Financial highlights

• Total revenues for 9M 2025 were €4.48 billion, up 5% year-over-year; net fees and commissions rose 18% to €1.83 billion, and investment product fees increased 10.7% year-over-year.

• Net interest income declined 8.7% year-over-year to €2.36 billion, but was offset by growth in non-NII components.

• Operating costs were €2.04 billion, up 2.2% year-over-year, with cost discipline maintained.

• Pre-provision income rose 7.4% to €2.44 billion, and total provisions dropped 30.6% to €244 million.

• Cost/income ratio improved to 45%, and cost of risk fell to 34 bps.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 net income guidance of ~€1.95 billion reaffirmed, with 85% already achieved in nine months.

• Management remains prudent on Q4, citing possible fiscal impacts, but confident in meeting or exceeding guidance.

• NII expected to stabilize and recover, with a 2026 target above €3 billion, assuming EURIBOR at 2%.

• Dividend policy remains at 80% payout, with potential for increase depending on year-end capital generation.

• Strategic plan targets for 2027 include net income of €2.15 billion and ROTE above 21%.