Bavarian Nordic (BAVA) Q3 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3 revenue was DKK 1,805 million, up 1% YoY; strong Travel Health growth offset lower Public Preparedness revenue. Q3 EBITDA reached DKK 621 million, with a 34.4% margin.

• 9M revenue rose 2.2% to DKK 4,897 million; EBITDA was DKK 1,711 million, with a 34.9% margin.

• 2026 guidance, upgraded October 8, was maintained at DKK 6,100 million revenue and an EBITDA margin of approximately 32%.

Financial highlights

• 9M gross margin was 54.0%, versus 51.9% in 9M 2025; Q3 gross margin was 51.9%, versus 49.8% YoY.

• 9M EBIT was DKK 1,188 million and net profit was DKK 1,196 million, versus DKK 1,784 million and DKK 1,674 million, respectively, in 9M 2025.

• 9M 2025 EBITDA and EBIT included DKK 810 million of one-off net operating income from the sale of a Priority Review Voucher.

• 9M operating cash flow was DKK 489 million, down from DKK 2,177 million; free cash flow was DKK 68 million, versus DKK 605 million.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 revenue guidance is DKK 6,100 million: approximately DKK 3,400 million Travel Health, DKK 2,500 million Public Preparedness and DKK 200 million other revenue; EBITDA margin is expected at approximately 32%.

• 2026 R&D costs are expected to reach DKK 750 million, CAPEX approximately DKK 250 million, and inventory levels are expected to remain relatively unchanged.

• Travel Health guidance includes DKK 200 million from Vimkunya sales; normal seasonality and Public Preparedness order timing will drive revenue and EBITDA variability.

• Public Preparedness had approximately DKK 2,400 million of 2026 orders secured as of the reporting date, with approximately DKK 900 million secured for 2027 delivery.