Billerud (BILL) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved 9% organic and currency-neutral sales growth and 6% net sales growth year-over-year to SEK 10,798 million in Q3 2024, with strong profit recovery in both Europe and North America.

• Adjusted EBITDA rose 33% to SEK 1,555 million, with a margin of 14%, the highest since Q4 2022.

• Efficiency enhancement program contributed SEK 610 million in EBITDA uplift in the first nine months, nearing the SEK 700 million full-year target.

• Profitability improved significantly versus both the previous quarter and the same quarter last year, driven by proactive pricing and mix management.

• Net profit declined 14% year-over-year to SEK 565 million due to higher input costs and tax normalization.

Financial highlights

• Net sales reached SEK 10,798 million in Q3 2024, up 6% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA rose 33% to SEK 1,555 million with a 14% margin.

• EBIT increased 105% year-over-year to SEK 851 million; EPS at SEK 2.27, up 808% from Q2 2024 but down 14% year-over-year.

• Operating cash flow before capex was SEK 438 million, down 60% year-over-year due to working capital build-up.

• North America delivered an 18% EBITDA margin, with volumes up 14% year-over-year and 7% sequentially; Europe achieved a 16% EBITDA margin, with profit uplift from pricing and efficiency gains despite a 3% year-over-year and 2% sequential volume decline.

• Cash conversion for the quarter was below 30% due to working capital buildup, but year-to-date is in line with last year.

Outlook and guidance

• Softer demand and price pressure expected in Europe for Q4, especially in board and packaging paper categories, while North America remains stable.

• Input costs projected to rise in Q4, mainly from higher pulpwood and energy prices in Europe.

• Pricing in Europe expected to remain flat in Q4, with some negative mix impact; North America paper prices stable, but pulp prices to decline by SEK 50 million.

• Volumes in both regions expected to decline by 10–20 thousand tons in Q4 versus Q3.

• Efficiency enhancement program on track to outperform SEK 700 million EBITDA uplift target for 2024.