Billerud (BILL) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• 2024 delivered improved results over 2023, with strong performance in North America and challenging conditions in Europe due to weak consumer demand and high pulpwood costs.

• Robust Q4 capped a year of improved results and the launch of a new strategy, with strong sales growth and enhanced profitability despite challenging conditions.

• Net sales grew 20% in Q4 2024, driven by both North America and Europe, with strong profit delivery in North America and improved profitability in Europe.

• Efficiency enhancement program delivered SEK 840 million in 2024, nearing the SEK 1.5 billion target ahead of schedule.

• Updated strategy focuses on safety, core strengths, gradual portfolio evolution in North America, and financial performance in Europe.

Financial highlights

• Q4 2024 net sales increased 20% year-over-year to SEK 11,468m; full-year net sales up 5% to SEK 43,453m.

• Adjusted EBITDA Q4: SEK 1,443m (+86% YoY), margin 13% (up from 8%); full-year: SEK 5,167m (+43% YoY), margin 12%.

• EPS for 2024 was SEK 7.02, up 260% year-over-year; Q4 EPS at SEK 3.24, up 43% sequentially.

• Dividend proposal of SEK 3.5 per share, up 75% year-over-year, totaling approximately SEK 900 million.

• Cash conversion in Q4 at 95%; working capital at 10% of sales.

Outlook and guidance

• Signs of improved market conditions for 2025, with optimism higher than three months ago but uncertainty remains high.

• Q1 2025 expected to see positive net pricing from liquid packaging board price increases, partly offset by declines in paperboard and sack/kraft paper.

• Announced price increases on containerboard, sack paper, and coated freesheet rolls to benefit Q2 and beyond.

• 2025 CapEx guidance at SEK 3.5 billion, with SEK 1.3 billion strategic CapEx focused on North American paperboard evolution.

• Region Europe sales volumes expected 30-60 ktons lower sequentially in Q1 2025; input costs expected to rise, mainly for wood in Europe and logistics in the US.