Blue Bird (BLBD) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record Q3 profit and net sales of $333–$333.4 million, up 13–13.3% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $48–$48.2 million (14.5% margin), and net income of $28.7–$31 million, more than doubling year-over-year.

• Strong demand for alternative-powered and electric buses, with over 200 EVs delivered in Q3 and EV bookings up 38% year-over-year, ending with 560+ EVs in backlog.

• Raised full-year guidance for adjusted EBITDA, net sales revenue, and adjusted free cash flow, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of beating and raising guidance.

• Announced CEO and chairman transitions, with internal successors ensuring leadership continuity.

• Supply chain and inflationary pressures persist but are being mitigated by pricing actions and operational improvements.

Financial highlights

• Q3 net revenue was $333–$333.4 million, up $39–$39.1 million (13–13.3%) year-over-year, driven by higher pricing and richer EV mix.

• Sold 2,151 buses in Q3, nearly flat year-over-year, with a 13.2% increase in average selling price per bus.

• Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 was $48–$48.2 million, up $19 million or 62.6% year-over-year.

• Gross margin reached a record 20.8%, up 5.3 percentage points year-over-year.

• Adjusted diluted EPS was $0.91, more than double the prior year.

• Liquidity at quarter-end was $231.7–$232 million, with cash and cash equivalents at $88.4 million.

Outlook and guidance

• Full-year revenue guidance raised to $1.3–$1.33 billion, a 16% year-over-year increase, with adjusted EBITDA guidance increased to $170–$180 million (13–13.5% margin).

• Fiscal 2025 preliminary guidance: $1.4–$1.5 billion revenue, $180–$200 million adjusted EBITDA, 9,000–9,500 units, and 1,000–1,300 EVs.

• Long-term adjusted EBITDA margin target raised to 15%+ on $2 billion revenue beyond 2027.