Blue Bird (BLBD) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record financial results in fiscal 2024, more than doubling prior year profit and surpassing guidance on all key metrics, with net sales of $1.35B and GAAP net income of $106M, up $82M from prior year.

• Delivered 9,000 buses, a 6% increase year-over-year, with strong demand and a firm order backlog of 4,800 units, up 16% from last year and valued at $735M.

• Alternative powered buses (propane, gas, EV) comprised 58% of unit sales, reinforcing leadership in this segment, with EV sales up nearly 30% and a record EV order backlog of 630 units.

• Significant operational improvements, including lean manufacturing, reduced production cycle times, and investments in people, processes, and facilities, drove higher efficiencies and throughput.

Financial highlights

• Full-year net revenue reached $1.35 billion, up 19% year-over-year, driven by higher pricing and richer EV mix; adjusted EBITDA was $183 million (13.6% margin), more than double the prior year.

• Adjusted net income was $115.3 million, up $80.8 million year-over-year, and adjusted diluted EPS was $3.46, up $2.39.

• Adjusted free cash flow was $99 million, exceeding the 50% of EBITDA target, though down $22M YoY due to higher capex and working capital.

• Q4 net revenue was $350 million (up 15% YoY), with adjusted EBITDA of $41 million and adjusted net income of $25.8 million.

• Parts segment revenue reached $104 million, up 6% YoY, with gross margins over 50% and average bus revenue per unit rose 14% YoY.

Outlook and guidance

• Fiscal 2025 guidance: net revenue of $1.4–$1.5 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $190–$210 million (13.6–14% margin), and free cash flow of $40–$60 million after $50 million extraordinary CapEx.

• Expect to deliver 9,250 units, including 1,150 EVs (up 64% YoY), with most EV deliveries in the second half of the year.

• Medium-term margin target of 14% in 2026–2027, with long-term goal of 15%+ margin and $1.85–$2 billion revenue.

• Profitable growth expected to accelerate in H2 FY2025, driven by product mix and EV adoption.