BP (BP) Trading update summary

3Q operating outlook

• Reported upstream production expected at 2,190–2,240mboe/d vs 2,201mboe/d in 2Q; gas & low carbon energy 775–795mboe/d and oil production & operations 1,415–1,445mboe/d.

• Gas & low carbon energy realizations expected to add $0.1–0.3bn QoQ; gas marketing and trading result expected significantly higher.

• Oil production & operations realizations expected to reduce results by $0.2–0.4bn QoQ; exploration write-offs expected significantly lower, while DD&A slightly higher.

• Customers expected significantly lower QoQ on weaker fuels margins, higher Castrol base oil prices and lower midstream contribution; seasonal volumes partly offset the decline.

• Products expected to benefit from stronger realized refining margins of $1.9–2.1bn; throughput expected at 1,375–1,405mb/d vs 1,467mb/d in 2Q.

Financial outlook

• 3Q underlying effective tax rate expected around 30%, reflecting geographical mix of profits.

• 3Q net debt expected at $13.5–14.5bn vs $22.3bn in 2Q; drivers include $1.0bn hybrid redemption, higher income taxes, $0–1.0bn working capital release and ~$3.0bn capex.

• Net debt, hybrid bonds, leases and Gulf of America settlement liabilities expected to fall by $9.0–10.0bn QoQ; remaining hybrid bonds and securities expected around $12.0bn.

• Post-tax adjusting impairments expected at $3.0–4.5bn, primarily in gas & low carbon energy transition businesses; excluded from underlying RC profit.

Trading environment

• Brent averaged $96.99/bbl in 3Q vs $103.85/bbl in 2Q; Henry Hub averaged $2.96/mmBtu vs $2.90/mmBtu; bp RIM averaged $46.7/bbl vs $29.6/bbl.