BP (BP) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Six strategic priorities in 2024 focused on safety, emissions reduction, business simplification, efficiency, growth, and shareholder returns, with significant cost reductions and portfolio actions.

• Upstream production increased 2% to 2.36 million barrels per day, with plant reliability above 95%, but customer and products business, especially refining, faced challenges.

• Safety remained a core focus, with a reduction in Tier 1 process safety events, though a fatality occurred at a newly acquired bioenergy site in Brazil.

• Major project progress included 10 FIDs, new JVs in gas and offshore wind, and continued portfolio high-grading.

• Announced a fundamental strategy reset and capital markets update for February 2025.

Financial highlights

• Operating cash flow for 2024 was $27.3 billion; adjusted EBITDA was $38.0 billion, down $5.7 billion year-over-year due to lower refining margins and trading results, partially offset by higher upstream production.

• Underlying replacement cost profit for 2024 was $8.9 billion, down from $13.8 billion in 2023; Q4 underlying RC profit was $1.2 billion, with an IFRS headline loss of $2.0 billion after $3.1–$3.4 billion in adverse adjusting items.

• Dividend per share increased by 10% to 8 cents; $7 billion in share buybacks completed in 2024.

• Net debt at year-end was $23.0 billion, up from $20.9 billion, including impacts from acquisitions and hybrid bond issuance.

• Full year capital expenditure was $16.2 billion; divestment and other proceeds totaled $4.2 billion.

Outlook and guidance

• Upstream production is expected to be lower in Q1 and full year 2025, mainly due to divestments and base decline.

• Customers & products business expects seasonally lower volumes and continued margin sensitivity to supply costs and FX.

• 2025 EBITDA expected to be slightly below the previous $46–$49 billion target; new metrics and targets to be announced at the February 26 capital markets update.

• Divestment and other proceeds for 2025 expected to be around $3 billion, with continued focus on cost reduction and capital discipline.

• Underlying effective tax rate for 2025 expected around 40%, with depreciation and amortization broadly flat.