Bubs Australia (BUB) H1 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Revenue for the half year ended 31 December 2025 was $55.5 million, up 14% year-over-year, driven by a 48% increase in US revenue and expanded store presence.

• Underlying EBITDA improved to $4.4 million from a loss of $0.7 million in the prior period, with group EBITDA up from $0.5 million year-over-year.

• Gross margin held at 48%, reflecting premium brand positioning and improved inventory management, despite higher air freight and tariff costs.

• Australia and China revenues declined due to supply constraints, with Australia down 9% and China down 27% year-over-year, but China saw 30% CBEC sales growth.

• Leadership strengthened and product portfolio rationalised, including discontinuation of the food portfolio to focus on core formula categories.

Financial highlights

• US revenue surged 48% year-over-year to $34.2 million, now the largest and most profitable region.

• Operating expenses to revenue ratio improved to 44% from 52% year-over-year, with a 3% decrease due to cost management and FDA study completion.

• Cash and cash equivalents at period end were $9.9 million, down from $17.4 million at 30 June 2025, with $20 million in undrawn debt facilities.

• Inventory levels rebuilt to $28.5 million to support demand, especially in the US and China.

• Net cash outflow from operating activities was $5.7 million, compared to $0.4 million outflow in the prior year.

Outlook and guidance

• Upgraded FY26 revenue guidance to $120–$125 million, representing 22–27% growth, with gross profit margin expected at 40–45%.

• Underlying EBITDA guidance raised to $9–$11 million for FY26.

• The company is progressing toward permanent FDA approval for US market access, with current sales allowed under Enforcement Discretion.

• Directors assume FDA approval and bank facility extension in their going concern assessment, but acknowledge material uncertainty if these are not achieved.

• Anticipated stronger second-half performance in both China and the USA.