CaixaBank (CABK) Bank of America 30th Annual Financials CEO Conference 2025 summary

Profitability and sustainability

• Return on tangible equity (RoTE) is currently above 16%, with expectations to sustain or exceed this level beyond 2027 due to favorable economic conditions and strong growth in Spain and Portugal.

• Loan demand is accelerating after years of deleveraging, with Spanish private sector leverage now much lower than in 2009-2010, supporting robust lending growth.

• Net interest income (NII) guidance for 2027 has been upgraded to above €11.5 billion, driven by higher volumes, better deposit performance, and legacy portfolio rollovers at improved yields.

• Non-interest income remains a structural strength, with market leadership in wealth management, insurance, and asset management, especially among senior clients.

• Asset quality is strong, with a cost of risk guided at 25 basis points for the year and a continued reduction in non-performing loans (NPLs).

Growth drivers and business mix

• Lending growth is tracking nominal GDP, with retail and business lending accelerating and mortgage growth returning.

• Deposit franchise is strengthened by stable interest-bearing balances, growth in non-interest-bearing balances, and increased client transactionality.

• Wealth management and off-balance sheet inflows are significant, with €1 billion per month into asset management and €5 billion quarterly growth in non-interest-bearing balances.

• Non-interest income is expected to grow further, especially from insurance and protection products, despite pressure on traditional banking fees.

• Mortgage margins remain tight due to competition, but overall client profitability is maintained through cross-selling and bundled products.

Capital management and returns

• Capital return policy includes a 50-60% cash payout, interim and final dividends, and share buybacks above a CET1 ratio threshold, which is set to rise to 12.5% next year.

• Risk-weighted asset (RWA) growth is managed to remain below lending growth, using tools like SRTs and internal reorganization for efficiency.

• Organic capital generation is expected to continue supporting both growth and shareholder returns.