CaixaBank (CABK) Goldman Sachs 30th Annual European Financials Conference 2026 summary

Macroeconomic outlook

• Updated macro views for Spain and Portugal reflect oil at €90 in 2024 and €80 in 2025, with 2–3 ECB rate hikes and inflation above 3% in 2024, returning to 2% in 2025.

• Spanish GDP is expected to be slightly above 2% in 2024, easing to 1.8% by 2027; Portugal will be slightly lower but similar.

• Nominal GDP growth is projected around 5%, supporting loan growth forecasts of 5–6% and deposit growth near 5% through 2027.

• Spain’s energy mix and renewables position it well to weather energy shocks, with no material change in loan demand observed yet.

• Uncertainty from geopolitical events, especially in the Middle East, could impact sentiment and loan demand if unresolved before summer.

Financial targets and profitability

• Return on Tangible Equity (ROTE) targets have been raised to over 18% for 2026 and around 20% for 2027–2028, with confidence in sustainability beyond 2027.

• Key drivers include positive net interest income (NII) evolution, volume growth in lending and deposits, and maturing hedges and fixed income positions.

• Wealth management and insurance businesses are performing strongly, with low market penetration offering further growth potential.

• Cost of risk remains benign, with sound coverage and unassigned provisions available.

Volume outlook and competition

• Mortgage lending remains highly competitive, but gradual improvement in pricing is expected as volumes grow and rates rise.

• Consumer lending is the most profitable segment, supported by strong personal consumption.

• Deposit competition is calmer, and payroll account market share remains stable despite targeted offers from competitors.