Canadian National Railway Company (CNR) Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference summary

Long-term growth opportunities and network positioning

• Positioned on a rich natural resource base, especially in northern and western Canada, with strong port access on all coasts and a diverse commodity portfolio spanning consumer, industrial, and resource sectors.

• Significant growth expected in natural resources, including energy products, potash, grain, and critical minerals, with forecasts of 25%-40% growth in natural gas and up to 70% in potash over the next decade.

• Investments in infrastructure, locomotives, and railcars have increased western network capacity by 25%, supporting both North American and global market access.

• Trade diversification is emphasized, with structural investments at ports like Prince Rupert and Vancouver, supported by Canadian trade corridor funding.

• The company is prepared for both opportunistic and structural shifts in trade flows, maintaining flexibility and readiness for growth.

Operational excellence and productivity

• Productivity improvements include 15% faster cycle times and record grain and corn crop movements, achieved without additional assets.

• Operating leverage is high, with available capacity in every corridor and 12% of the locomotive fleet ready to deploy.

• Terminal operations are being optimized, reducing the need for locomotives, facilities, and manpower, with labor productivity up 7% overall and double digits in T&E.

• Technology and AI are being leveraged for predictive maintenance, asset health, and operational efficiency, with ongoing updates to foundational systems.

• Regulatory changes are slow but progressing, with Canada granting some waivers ahead of the U.S., and ongoing advocacy for a more constructive framework.

Commercial strategy and financial outlook

• Commercial and operations teams are closely aligned, pursuing both large-scale structural projects like the ACE Terminal and smaller, high-value opportunities.

• Q1 saw CAD 100 million in new opportunities converted, with strong financial leverage and a favorable earnings algorithm.

• Free cash flow is up 44% in Q1, with a temporary increase in leverage to support buybacks; CapEx is expected to decrease as the investment cycle ends.

• Guidance for the year is flattish volumes with EPS growth, with the company positioned for an inflection point as investments and capacity come online.

• The framework prioritizes reinvestment in high-return opportunities, consistent dividends, and returning excess cash to shareholders.