Carrefour (CA) Q3 2026 TU earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3 like-for-like sales grew 2.3%, following 2.1% in H1, with growth across core markets and strong e-commerce momentum.

• Deteriorating social and security conditions in France prompted lower 2026 targets; the strategic roadmap and medium-term 2028 and 2030 guidance remained unchanged.

Financial highlights

• Q3 gross sales were €22,694m pre-IAS 29, up 3.9% at current and 2.7% at constant exchange rates; post-IAS 29 sales were €22,781m.

• Q3 food sales rose 2.7% and non-food sales declined 1.1%; organic growth excluding petrol and calendar effects was 1.7% pre-IAS 29.

• Sales bridge: scope/M&A -0.7%, petrol +1.3%, calendar -0.2% and FX +1.2%, mainly from the Brazilian real.

• 9M gross sales were €66,483m pre-IAS 29 and €66,631m post-IAS 29; pre-IAS 29 sales grew 2.3% at constant exchange rates.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 recurring operating income is expected to grow; operating-margin guidance was cut to +0–15 bps from +25 bps.

• Adjusted EPS guidance moved from high-single-digit growth to stable-to-slight growth; net free cash flow is expected to decline slightly versus prior slight-growth guidance.

• Estimated France-related recurring operating income risk is €80m–€200m, depending on the crisis’s duration, severity and impact on customer sentiment.

• 2026 CAPEX guidance was reduced to €1.6bn from €1.7bn; projects were postponed, mainly in France.

• The €1bn 2026 cost-savings target remained on track; medium-term 2028 and 2030 guidance was unchanged.