Carrier Global (CARR) Citi's Global Industrial Tech & Mobility Conference 2026 summary

Growth strategy and market outlook

• Focus on accelerating growth through new product development, aftermarket expansion, and systems-level offerings, especially in data centers and energy management systems in Europe.

• Despite market headwinds in 2025, expect a return to 6%-8% growth with short-cycle market tailwinds.

• Americas residential HVAC volumes projected down 10%-15% in 2026, but inventory management and channel engagement are mitigating factors.

• Light commercial sales expected to decline high single digits in 2026, but new product introductions and reduced field inventory provide optimism.

• Commercial HVAC orders, especially in data centers, are strong, with significant share gains and new product launches driving differentiation.

Regional performance and product innovation

• Europe: $5B business, 75% residential/light commercial, 25% commercial; new mid-tier Viessmann-branded product to target broader installer base.

• Germany's heat pump transition continues despite subsidy uncertainty; new product aims to lower installation costs and reduce reliance on subsidies.

• Asia and Middle East: Strong growth in India, Middle East, and Japan, with new facilities and product launches supporting expansion.

• China: Residential market remains challenging, but commercial and data center segments show promise.

• Transport: Container segment strong, truck/trailer expected to improve in 2H; margin improvement anticipated as mix shifts.

Operational efficiency and capital allocation

• Productivity initiatives and cost reductions, including $100M in overhead savings, are offsetting commodity headwinds.

• Price realization expected in the low single digits, with ongoing focus on material productivity and product redesign.

• Capital deployment prioritizes $1.5B in buybacks, organic growth investments, and targeted small-scale M&A; no large transformational deals planned.