Certara (CERT) Barclays 28th Annual Global Healthcare Conference summary

Financial performance and guidance

• Ended 2025 with strong revenue and EBITDA, hitting the high end of guidance for both metrics.

• Organic software revenue grew 7% for the year, in line with expectations.

• Services bookings were volatile, with a weak Q3 but a strong December, up 17%.

• Software bookings declined year-over-year in Q4, leading to a full-year growth of just 1%.

• 2026 guidance projects flat to 4% growth, with Q1 expected at the lower end due to tough comparisons and lingering Q4 dynamics.

Product launches and innovation

• Launched three new software products in Q4: Certara IQ for QSP, Phoenix Cloud, and a Pinnacle enhancement.

• Certara IQ leverages Vyasa AI and targets the fast-growing QSP space, aiming to expand both internal capacity and customer offerings.

• Phoenix Cloud introduces AI enhancements and aims to shift customers from desktop to cloud, with early positive feedback from Tier 1 clients.

• Cloud conversion will impact revenue recognition, with more growth expected to show in 2027.

Market dynamics and customer trends

• Software bookings were impacted by Tier 1 pharma headcount reductions and lower clinical trial starts, affecting seat licenses and study counts.

• Certara IQ requires market development, while Phoenix Cloud is expected to drive near-term conversions as renewals come due.

• AI integration is seen as a competitive advantage, with regulatory acceptance and scientific expertise supporting customer retention.