CF Industries (CF) 21st Annual Global Farm to Market Conference summary

Conference overview

• Over 1,000 attendees and 100+ companies participated, covering the entire food value chain from farm inputs to retail, with a focus on key industry themes and market dynamics.

• Keynotes included a panel on U.S. agriculture and a session on portfolio positioning amid prolonged inflation.

• Sessions featured fireside chats with industry leaders, including a deep dive into nitrogen markets and supply chain challenges.

Nitrogen market dynamics and supply

• Nitrogen demand continues to grow 1%-2% annually, but supply is constrained by geopolitical conflicts, gas issues, and aging assets.

• North America, especially the U.S., is seen as a structurally advantaged, low-cost, and reliable production base.

• Current market is supply-limited due to export restrictions and production outages in key regions, leading to price bifurcation between U.S. and offshore markets.

• U.S. nitrogen fill rates for spring are high, with most product priced attractively for farmers; export opportunities arise from price arbitrage.

Policy, inventory, and purchasing behavior

• U.S. government discussions on fertilizer supply and potential export restrictions are ongoing, but exports remain a minor part of the portfolio.

• Retailers aim to empty inventory by end of June, with fill programs expected to start in early August, mirroring last year’s efficient process.

• No significant change in retail purchasing behavior is anticipated; focus remains on liquidation and repositioning.