Coinbase Global (COIN) Citi’s 2026 Global TMT Conference summary

Business expansion and product innovation

• Total addressable market has expanded significantly, moving from a single-product spot trading platform to four trading verticals: spot, derivatives (including commodities and metals), tokenized equities, and prediction markets, with the latter showing strong early growth.

• Currently operating 12 product lines generating over $100 million annually, leveraging a common infrastructure and small, agile teams to efficiently scale new features and products.

• Recent launches include tokenized equities for non-U.S. customers and rapid growth in prediction markets, which have shown strong product market fit and incremental revenue without cannibalizing existing lines.

• Priorities for the year are focused on growing the Everything Exchange, stablecoins, and payments, with derivatives and prediction markets highlighted as key growth areas.

• Collaboration with partners like Circle on USDC continues, with a perpetually renewable agreement and mutual incentives to drive adoption, though competition remains in certain areas.

Financial reporting and operational discipline

• Financial disclosures are evolving to reflect diversified revenue streams, now breaking out trading volumes for spot, derivatives, and stablecoins to enhance transparency for investors.

• Expense discipline remains a focus, with productivity per person rising due to AI, enabling growth with a lower headcount and a commitment to adjusted EBITDA positivity even in declining revenue environments.

• Expenses for 2026 are expected to be similar to 2025, barring changes in USDC rewards, supporting stable operating margins.

• Nine consecutive quarters of native inflows and growing market share signal strong user trust and brand strength, even in choppy market conditions.

Regulatory and market environment

• The company is cautiously optimistic about upcoming regulatory clarity, with multiple paths to achieve it, including congressional approval and proactive rulemaking by regulatory bodies.

• Tokenized equities are seen as a natural evolution, with a focus on real, one-for-one backed securities on-chain, emphasizing customer education and clear taxonomy to distinguish between true securities and derivatives.

• The company believes permission-less blockchains offer superior security and resiliency, though permissioned chains may coexist for specific use cases.